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School Organisation Plan 2021

Section 3: Pupil projections

Methodology

Data sources

The following data sources have been used to formulate the pupil forecasts:

  • the latest (anonymised) spring (Jan 2021) school census data, providing information on the pupils attending mainstream schools in each planning area
  • the number of pupils on roll recorded in the spring (Jan 2021) school census data for the previous academic year
  • the number of Reception and Year 7 allocated places for Sept 2021
  • details on each mainstream school
  • a trajectory of planned housing growth
  • actual births sourced from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) live births data series
  • projected births sourced from the latest official sub-national population projection (SNPP) from the ONS

Data processing

The first stage of the projection process calculates aggregate 'target' figures for each primary and secondary year group. These target totals are derived by rolling forward actual roll numbers using cohort ratios based on historical school census data.

A cohort ratio is calculated by dividing the Spring 2021 Year 9 total by the 2020 Year 8 figure, for example, with change in the cohort size from one academic year to the next associated with migration effects. For Reception year, the cohort ratio is calculated using birth totals from five-years earlier. For use in the model, this calculation is averaged over three years of data.

The targets form the overall controlling totals for the individual school and planning area projections that are presented in the final set of primary and secondary projection results.

Birth statistics are a key input to the projection process, a trajectory of future births has been derived from the ONS 2018-based SNPP, released in March 2020. In the 2021 model update, birth totals for 2019-20 have been scaled to the 2018-based SNPP birth trajectory; fixed beyond 2023-24.

The calculation of the cohort ratios takes account of children that live in Stockton that is different to the location of their school. The balance is for a small net outflow for primary schools but for a net inflow for secondary schools.

Live births

From its low point in 2000/01 the birth total for Stockton-on-Tees rose substantially to reach a peak of 2,474 in 2011/12. Since then, birth numbers have gradually reduced, with just under 2,000 births in 2019/20 for entry in Sept 2024. This is the lowest births number recorded over the historical period. As a result of these trends, secondary school intake is expected to peak in Spring 2022 through to 2024, gradually reducing thereafter. The peak number on roll is likely to be achieved in Spring 2026.

The LA's secondary Capital strategy is mindful that this growth will peak 2023/24 and follow National trends and reduce year on year. This drop will increase our surplus position in Secondary in future years, this can be evidenced, as for Sept 2021 entry we have placed 2460 Y7 children whilst the equivalent Sept 2021 Reception cohort was only 2270 - an 8% reduction. With continuing lower birth rates, this downward trend will continue at least for the next 3 /4 years.

Beyond Spring 2032, the numbers on roll at secondary schools will be driven by future birth numbers (from 2020/21 onwards - COVID effect), although despite early indications Nationally that lockdown has contributed to an increase in births during 2020/21, this hasn't been reflected in birth figures across Stockton), determined by fertility trends and the size of the resident female population aged 15-49. Rebasing the most recent ONS birth projections to Stockton-on-Tees' latest birth registration count suggests a further decline in birth numbers. Erring on the side of caution given the uncertainty associated with demographic trends, the 2021 pupil projections assume that the annual estimate of new births remains constant after 2023, at 1,865 per year.

Primary pupil projections

The base data for the primary pupil projections is sourced from the latest January school census (January 2021). Capacities and admission limits are also provided.

Reception intake numbers for the next academic year (Spring 2022 in the case of the 2021 model update) are estimated using the latest information on allocations and appeals available at the time of the pupil projection model being updated. These allocations totals are used as a proxy for the admission rolls in the following Spring. A check is made to ensure that the allocation and appeals (in total) is in line with the target for that year.

Reception intake numbers for subsequent projection years are estimated as an average of previous year's Reception, Year 1, and Year 2 totals, with an annual adjustment for any planned new housing or clearances in each school's admission zone.

Year 1 totals are derived from previous year's Reception totals, with adjustments applied to account for planned housing and migration factors. Totals for Years 2-6 is each calculated in a similar way.

Totals for children aged three and four are back calculated from the Reception figures for each school and are provided in the projection output to indicate the likely cohort size.

Manual adjustments to pupil projections are made under certain circumstances. These adjustments may be made to keep schools within their admission limit, with residual totals re-distributed to neighbouring primary schools.

The resulting total for the sum of pupil projections for all schools is compared to the overall target. A 'scaling factor' is calculated and is subsequently applied (in each projection year).

Secondary pupil projections

The base data for the secondary pupil projections is sourced from the latest January school census (January 2021). School capacity and admission limits are also provided.

Primary school pupil census data by year-group, is used to estimate the number of Year 7 pupils expected in each secondary school's admission zone for the next seven years. This estimate is compared to the numbers of pupils on roll and a 'propensity to attend' ratio is calculated using a weighted history of data to model the Year 6 to Year 7 transition.

The first year of the projection, totals for Year 7 were provided by the admissions team and include the latest information on allocations and appeals available at the time of the projections being updated. These allocation totals are used as a proxy for the admission rolls in Spring of the same school year. A check is made to ensure that the allocation and appeals data is in line with the target for that year.

For subsequent years, the numbers in the school admission zone are estimated and the derived 'propensity to attend' ratio is applied. So, for the Year 7 projection for Spring 2023, the model uses the Year 5 pupil cohort in Spring 2021 and applies the 'propensity to attend' ratio for each school.

Secondary academies are projected using the same methodology as other secondary community schools.

Year 8 totals are derived from previous year's Year 7 totals, with adjustments for housing and migration. Year 9 to Year 11 totals is each calculated in a similar way.

Where sixth forms exist at secondary schools, projections for these year groups (Years 12 and 13) are calculated using previous 'staying-on rates' at that school.

Manual adjustments to the pupil projections are made under certain circumstances. These adjustments may be made to keep schools within their admission limit, with residual totals redistributed to neighbouring secondary schools. These adjustments are made on request from each local authority and are based upon the school-specific intelligence of the respective place-planning teams.

The resulting total for the sum of pupil projections for all schools in Stockton is compared to the overall target. A scaling factor is calculated and is subsequently applied (in each projection year).

Migration and housing developments

Sites for new housing development are split into those with and those without planning permission.

Stockton planners provide a 'family homes' percentage for each new housing site. A family home is assumed to be all homes and flats with two or more bedrooms, and not housing specifically designed for older people.

The housing data is provided in an annual, April-to-April format, with a site location (site centroid) provided for each new development. The housing totals represent the position as of April/May/June for the year that pupil projections are being formulated.

With the aid of geographical information system (GIS) technology, each housing site centroid is plotted and assigned to its relevant school admission zone where possible. Aggregate housing growth totals are calculated for each year of the projection period for each primary school (community-academy-free school and Roman Catholic (RC)-academy school) and each secondary school (community-academy-free school and RC-academy school).

Due to there being some admission zones that overlap, adjustments are made to prevent the projected number of pupils moving into new housing from being included at more than one school.

For primary schools, the Council has reverted to the Tees Valley ratios where, 100 new family homes are expected, on average, to house 21 primary school aged pupils (3.0 pupils per year group). Current school roll totals have been used to identify a likely yield for both Catholic pupils (3.5 per 100 homes or 0.5 pupils per year group) and non- Catholic pupils (17.5 per 100 homes or 2.5 pupil per year-group).

Similarly, for secondary schools, we have used the ratio that 100 new family homes are expected, on average, to house approximately 13 secondary school aged pupils (2.6 pupils per year group, Years 7-11). Current school roll totals have been used to identify a likely yield for both Catholic pupils (2.5 per 100 homes or 0.5 pupils per year group) and Non-Catholic pupils (10.5 per 100 homes or 2.1 pupil per year-group).

Stockton-on-Tees has a growing population, with a growing demand for housing. To ensure Stockton-on-Tees remains a great place to live, and that the housing needs of the Borough are met the Council will maintain a rolling 5-year supply of deliverable housing land. To achieve this the Council are preparing a new Local Plan; sites identified within the emerging Local Plan.

In the 'Local Plan' includes a housing requirement of 10,150 homes to be delivered between 2017/18 and 2031/32. The housing requirement will be achieved through the delivery of homes on sites with planning applications and allocations within the emerging Local Plan. The housing strategy within the emerging Local Plan seeks to promote development in the most sustainable way through:

  • supporting the aspiration of delivering housing in the Regenerated River Tees Corridor (between A66 and Newport Bridge) near Stockton Town Centre
  • supporting development on suitable sites within the conurbation
  • creating a Sustainable Urban Extension to West Stockton
  • proposing major new residential development at Wynyard leading to the area becoming a sustainable settlement

There are several housing developments of greater than 250 homes that are either approved / planned or detailed in the 'Local Plan' across the borough that will affect most of our planning areas namely: Billingham & Wolviston - the Wynyard area (1,100 rising to 3,000+), North and Central Stockton - along Harrowgate / Yarm Back Lane (for 2,150 homes), Eaglescliffe & Yarm - (2,000+) and Ingleby Barwick - continues to expand (1,100).

Cross-border movement

Small adjustments have been factored into for cross border movement from pupils migrating into the Billingham & Wolviston planning area from Hartlepool BC and similarly from Stockton South planning area (Thornaby) into Middlesbrough

Planning area and borough-level pupil projections

The following projection tables are taken from the 2021 SCAP return and incorporate the change in methodology and indicate the Published Admission Numbers (PAN) for both Primary and Secondary Schools in each planning area, the allocated Reception and Y7 only cohorts and the number of children expected in each of the subsequent years of entry.

Billingham and Wolviston: Primary and Secondary

This area includes thirteen primary schools with eight being academies including the free school Wynyard CE Primary.

Table 8. Primary school places: 8080001 Billingham and Wolviston

 

 Total
Capacity555
2021453
2022439
2023438
2024404
2025395

 

Recently some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the LA will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.

Since its opening (Sept 2015) the free school has continued to displace children from surrounding schools namely from within this planning area but also from 8080002 as well as from neighbouring LA areas particularly those in County Durham.

In addition, a Free School application was approved in principle under Wave 14 albeit within a neighbouring LA area (Hartlepool) but in an area that will impact on Stockton - Wynyard. With 12% surplus in this planning area and only two schools full then the opening of another school would not be helpful and cause more issues for the 13 schools in this area.

It is expected that future housing growth in the Wynyard area albeit within a neighbouring Council area (Hartlepool) could see an increase in the demand for school places in the future in this planning area. The Council already works closely with HBC School Place Planning colleagues as part of the Strategic Master Plan to ensure 'jointly' that there will be sufficient school places available in the future.

Table 9. Secondary school places: 8080001 Billingham and Wolviston

 

 Total
Capacity540
2021515
2022548
2023544
2024519
2025516
2026503
2027534

 

There are two secondary schools - Northfield School and St Michael's Catholic Academy. The Bishop Hogarth Trust have raised concerns of the lack of available space across their school (St Michael's RC) since they approved a small increase in its Admission Number to 210 from 196. This is more than its previously PSBP funded expansion to increase the school capacity to 980. This is something the LA will look to work with the Trust to resolve. The Lower primary numbers recently entering this phase and predicted to continue, will mean that this current pressure on places will not be a long-term concern.

Traditionally the two schools accept pupils from 8080008 - Stockton North & Central due to parental preference and a RC primary feeder school into St Michaels' Catholic Academy instead of a local Stockton RC secondary. There are also small numbers of residents whose children secure places in another cross-border school e.g., Sedgefield in County Durham.

The above projections do not significantly exceed the current Capacity in most years, but the level of surplus places does fall below 5% in some years. The above figures reflect some movement of pupils from Stockton North & Central (8080008) into the St Michael's from a RC feeder primary school located in Norton. There is also some consideration for SBC children who are successful in gaining a place at a Sedgefield school in County Durham each year. However, the above figures do not consider those that successfully gain a place in independent schools.

North Stockton: Primary

This area includes fourteen primary schools (including nine academies). The table below reflects projected Reception intake numbers only.

Table 10. Primary school places: 8080002 North Stockton

 

 Total
Capacity669
2021538
2022532
2023531
2024492
2025484

 

Recently some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the LA will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available. Its worth noting that one Academy (Crooksbarn Primary) has since increased its Admission Number (AN) to reflect parental preference by 5 places which exceeds overall Capacity in this area.

Central Stockton: Primary

This area includes ten primary schools (including five academies).

Table 11. Primary school places: 8080003 Central Stockton

 

 Total
Capacity500
2021390
2022366
2023364
2024338
2025332

 

Recently some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the LA will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.

This area sometimes experiences a 'parental preference' effect as children travel further to access Reception places outside of this planning area and many parents can access school places at other schools. One RC Academy (St Patrick's) operates a lower Admission Number than its actual capacity but if demand dictates it will admit up to its capacity of 40 places rather than AN of 30.

The LA as part of a Strategic Infrastructure Plan with several developers and landowners related to the Harrowgate / Yarm Back Lane development, has secured a commitment of a site and potential new primary school should demand dictate it in the future. At present there is sufficient capacity in surrounding schools to meet demand.

Stockton North and Central Secondary

This area includes five schools all of which are academies.

Table 12. Secondary school places: 8080008 Stockton North & Central

 

 Total
Capacity987
2021981
20221022
20231001
2024996
2025952
2026964
2027915

 

The Capacity above includes a reduction of 50 places at North Shore Academy that offers an admission of 160 since Sept 2016.

As part of the LA's Capital expansion programme due to demand exceeding supply, the LA has completed the first phase of expansion at one of the academies - Our Lady & St Bede Catholic Academy which has been increased by 300 places from 750 to 1050.

The LA and another trust Outwood have begun initial feasibility to expand Bishopsgarth by 300 places from a 600-place school to 900 hopefully by Sept 2023, to meet current demand over the next couple of years as higher primary leavers indicate. This will increase the Capacity in this area to 1047 places.

This expansion will also provide additional capacity expected from housing associated with the strategic site Harrowgate Lane / Yarm Back Lane developments. If future demand exceeds supply, then this will be revisited to take the school up to 1050.

As stated above there has always been at least 40 pupils that access provision in 808007 due to the feeder link arrangement with the RC secondary academy.

Primary: Thornaby

This area includes seven primary schools (including 5 academies).

Table 13. Primary school places: 8080004 Thornaby

 

 Total
Capacity380
2021301
2022281
2023280
2024257
2025250

 

Recently some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the LA will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. There are no planned expansions in this planning area given the capacity available.

This area however experiences a 'parental preference' effect as children will travel further to access Reception places outside of this planning area. In addition, some schools tend to admit above their admission number which also adds capacity. This will need to be reviewed to ensure supply meets demand.

Primary: Ingleby Barwick

This area includes six primary schools (including 3 academies).

Table 14. Primary school places: 8080005 Ingleby Barwick

 

 Total
Capacity390
2021309
2022308
2023307
2024283
2025278

 

Due to lower Reception intakes than expected across this planning area in recent years, has led to two schools to reduce their Reception offer by 30 places each. Firstly, Ingleby Mil Primary from 90 places down to 60 Sept 2020 and a further reduction of 30 places at Whinstone (an academy) will commence from Sept 2022 also from 90 to 60. This equates to a revised offer of places in this area of 330.

The LA will be monitoring this situation especially with increased housing applications that are expected. However, at present this falling trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. Although there are no planned expansions in this planning area, the LA are mindful this will need to be reviewed to ensure supply meets demand.

Primary: Eaglescliffe and Yarm

This area includes ten primary schools all but one is now an academy.

Table 15. Primary school places: 8080006 Eaglescliffe & Yarm

 

 Total
Capacity331
2021262
2022255
2023256
2024238
2025234

 

Recently some schools are experiencing lower than expected Reception intakes across this planning area, increasing surplus capacity so the LA will be monitoring this regarding any financial impacts on those schools involved. This trend is expected to continue based on projections due to lower birth rates. Although there are no planned expansions in this planning area, the LA are mindful this will need to be reviewed especially with recent planning approval for additional homes, to ensure supply meets demand.

Stockton South Secondary

There are 6 schools, all academies including a Free School.

Table 16. Secondary school places: 8080009 Stockton South

 

 Total
Capacity1020
2021972
2022898
2023878
2024872
2025878
2026805
2027816

 

At present several pupils access school places at secondary schools outside of their immediate located admission zone school, namely from the Thornaby area, as a result it leads to surplus in their local school Thornaby Academy (circa 60+) but fills up the more popular ones elsewhere in the planning area. Children from Ingleby Barwick continue to gain places in both Conyers and Egglescliffe.

Due to the excessive number of applications received by some of the schools in this planning, means that there is also the likelihood that those academies will have to admit above their capacity due to successful appeals. This creates a problem in year as it reduces places for children moving into the area wanting a place at their local school.

As part of the LA's Capital expansion programme an increase in the number of places are being provided at All Saints CE Academy. This will increase the offer by 200 across the school from 700 to 900 places. This permanent expansion of classrooms will provide the additional capacity the school have offered Y7 pupils since September 2019 by replacing the temporary classrooms presently on site. The expansion works should be completed by late 2021 / early 2022.

There is still some movement out of this area with approximately 40 pupils who gain a place at school/schools in another LA e.g., Middlesbrough due to one Academy operating an admission policy criterion that accepts pupils from the Thornaby area. There are early indications that some MBC residents, unable to secure a Middlesbrough school place for their children are applying for and in some cases securing places in SBC schools - adding to the pressures at this current time.

Borough level

Table 17. Primary

 

 Total
Capacity2825
20212253
20222181
20232176
20242012
20251973

 

Table 18. Secondary

 

 Total
Capacity2547
20212468
20222468
20232423
20242387
20252346
20262272
20272265

 

This includes a 50-place reduction in available places due to North Shore Academy reducing overall places to 160 from 210.

It is clear from the table above that the next few years of projected primary pupil numbers expected to enter secondary in Y7 above, should be catered for following the Councils capital expansion to increase places in some schools. However, this situation is expected to change from Sept 2024 onwards as lower primary numbers begin to move into secondary thus increasing surplus places year on year. It also worth noting that this drop in pupil numbers will continue due to the lower pupil birth numbers as indicated in Table 17. Any further expansion will be predicated on future housing schemes e.g., West Stockton to ensure we can meet demand whilst carrying a small surplus of between 5 to 10 %

This document was prepared by Darren Coulton in October 2021.